The term “dead cat bounce” derives from the fact that even a dead cat
will bounce if it falls from a great height. If you imagine a dead cat
soaked in crude oil and dropped from a 50-storey building, you get a
rough picture of how Nigeria’s economy is performing these days. Nigeria
is expected to grow 2.5 per cent this year after contracting 1.6 per
cent in 2016. But the population is also growing at 2.5 per cent. So in
per capita terms, things are going nowhere. The reasons for the
“recovery” are twofold. First, last year’s performance was so dismal it
would have been difficult for the economy to fall further. Without doing
anything at all — a reasonable description of policy under Muhammadu
Buhari, the country’s ailing leader and frequent London resident — the
baseline effect has worked its magic. Second, the oil that makes up so
much of government revenues is flowing faster. In June, production was
1.7m barrels a day, 10 per cent higher than a year ago.
